The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: A New Standard and Its Perspectives

Synopsis

SHARE is a Collaborative Project in the Cooperation programme of the Seventh Framework Program of the European Commission. SHARE's main objective is to provide a community-based seismic hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region with update mechanisms.

SHARE successfully delivered a European wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment across multiple disciplines spanning from geology to seismology and earthquake engineering. The project built a framework for integration across national borders, compiled relevant earthquake and fault data, and developed a sustainable, high-impact community-based hazard model assembled by seeking extensive expert elicitation and participation through multiple community feedback procedures. In total, the project produced a time-independent European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHMs) spanning spectral ordinates from PGA to 10 seconds and exceedance probabilities ranging from 10^-1 to 10^-4 yearly probability.

The model complexity varies with the location as a consequence of tectonic regionalization. The hazard values are referenced to a rock velocity of v_s30=800m/s and were computed using the OpenQuake hazard engine developed within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) initiative, intensively interacting with the SHARE modelling team as the first large applicant of the code. Hazard curves, uniform hazard spectra (UHS) and disaggregation results are computed for more than 120,000 sites on-land within Europe and Turkey, spaced at a distance of 10km. The project has now established new standards in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) practice by a close cooperation of leading European geologists, seismologists and engineers.

About the speaker

Dr. Jochen Wössner is senior researcher with the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) and heads the earthquake statistics group. In his research, he focuses on various aspects of statistical seismology, in particular on (1) seismicity analysis in space and time and their relation to earthquake physics, (2) probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and (3) earthquake prediction research, and (4) earthquake triggering by static stress changes. With seismicity being the expression of active geophysical processes, he uses geophysical modelling techniques to study a variety of phenomena related to earthquake occurrence.

He collaborates with researchers around the globe within the EU-FP7 project Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE), of which he was the Project Manager, and with leading SCEC researchers in the Collaboratory Study for Earthquake Predictability (CSEP).

Further information

This evening meeting is jointly organised by SECED and ICE and chaired by Dr. Roger Musson (British Geological Survey). Non-members of SECED/ICE are welcome to attend. Attendance at this meeting is free. Seats are allocated on a first come, first served basis. For further information, please contact Greg James (tel. 020 7665 2229).