Keynote lecture by Anne Kiremidjian
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Earthquake risk and resiliency are dependent on time varying processes that are most frequently ignored in the models used to estimate. In this paper, a framework for a dynamic risk model is presented that includes time dependent (a) earthquake occurrence model, (b) fragility function development for deteriorating structures exposed to different environmental conditions, and (c) fragility functions that change in floor plan and increase in number of stories over time. The effects of time dependence on the overall risk are studied through a series of examples. It is found that the risk changes significantly with increased time since the last major earthquake event. Similarly, the vulnerability of structures depends on the environmental conditions that influence corrosion rates and buildings become increasingly more fragile as the number of stories or floor plans increase. Growth of building stock due to population growth further increases the risk and increase challenges for creating resilient communities.