Uncertainty Modelling and Visualisation for Tsunami Hazard and Risk Mapping

Synopsis

Current state-of-the-practice for developing tsunami hazard maps is mainly concerned with tsunami hazard parameters that correspond to a single scenario on a single fault. It fails to assess uncertainty related to hazard predictions. Consequently, users of scenario-based tsunami hazard maps are unable to appreciate potential risks in different situations, inhibiting risk communication among tsunami experts, crisis managers, and local residents. Clearly, a set of tsunami inundation hazard maps, corresponding to different tsunami scenarios and consequences, is useful for tsunami hazard preparedness and evacuation planning in coastal cities and towns. Use of stochastic hazard maps that take into account the main sources of uncertainty related to tsunami hazard assessment promotes informed decisions regarding tsunami risk reduction actions by communicating the uncertainty of hazard predictions and by understanding the consequences of different situations.

Recent advances in tsunami hazard and risk mapping allow the quantification of uncertainty associated with tsunami modelling. Major sources of uncertainty in predicting tsunami wave heights and inundation extents can be attributed to source characteristics of future tsunamigenic earthquakes, such as location, magnitude, geometry, and slip distribution. New methods for developing stochastic earthquake source models, which are based on spectral analysis of slip heterogeneity of an inverted source model and spectral synthesis of slip random fields, facilitate the generation of possible scenarios having different earthquake slips and fault geometry. Novel source modelling combined with Monte Carlo tsunami simulation and tsunami fragility models offers new ways of presenting and visualising tsunami hazard and risk assessments, which are relevant for risk management actions. The talk presents the state-of-the-art approaches for visualising uncertain tsunami hazard/risk analysis outputs and demonstrates how rich information of Monte Carlo tsunami simulations can be summarised concisely and how it can be used for tsunami risk mitigation decisions effectively. Various visualisation methods of tsunami hazard/risk analysis are illustrated through a case study of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami from retrospective viewpoints.

About the speaker

Dr Katsu Goda is a Senior Lecturer in Civil Engineering at the University of Bristol. He received BSc and MSc degrees in Environmental Sciences from Kyoto University (Japan) in 2001 and 2003, respectively. In 2007, he earned a PhD degree in Civil Engineering at the University of Western Ontario (Canada).

His research interests are broad and multidisciplinary, and cover a wide range of academic fields, including engineering seismology, earthquake engineering, tsunami engineering, and decision-making under uncertainty.

He has received international recognition for the high quality of his research through various awards and grants, including a NSERC PDF Award and a 2011 Philip Leverhulme Prize. In 2012, his professional expertise was recognised through a prestigious 2012 Charles F. Richter Early Career Award given by the Seismological Society of America and a Humboldt Research Fellowship Award for experienced researchers by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

Further information

This evening meeting is organised by SECED and chaired by Tiziana Rossetto (UCL). Non-members of the society are welcome to attend. Attendance at this meeting is free. Seats are allocated on a first come, first served basis. Tea and biscuits will be served from 5.30pm - 6pm. The presentation is scheduled to finish before 7.30 pm. For further information, please contact Greg James (tel. 020 7665 2229).

Online broadcast

This event will be broadcast online at the following address: https://ice-org.webex.com/ice-org/onstage/g.php?MTID=ee4d6b60be692327daff74c04678f2b83